Facing the fury with fragile infrastructure

I made a quick trip to Beaumont, TX, this week to check on my son and his wife. This sign is from the mall in Port Arthur. I thought it was very apropos. Hurricanes seem to be targeting population centers and infrastructure more and more.

The Materials Management Service reported this week that "52 of the 3,800 offshore oil and gas production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico had been destroyed by Hurricane Ike."

Also down for the count were three jack-up drilling rigs, and one platform drilling rig

"Initial estimates are that the 52 destroyed production platforms produced a total of 13,300 barrels of oil per day and 90 million cubic feet of gas per day."

Pipelines seemed to be a real target of the storm --

"To date, MMS has received reports of six gas transmission pipeline systems with damage. Analysis of the impact that this damage may have on resuming production is underway. Operators have begun to test and inspect other pipeline systems to evaluate the full extent of any damage. Considering the large impacted area, this will take some time to complete the inspections."

The MMS is working with operators to get passed some of the problems holding back resumption --
"Resuming Production – Production from the Gulf of Mexico accounts for 25 percent of the oil produced domestically and 15 percent of the natural gas produced domestically. ...
"Working with oil and gas operators, there are tools that can be used to assist in resuming production which is curtailed because of damaged pipelines. These tools include barging, temporary flaring, and re-routing of product through other pipelines. Use of these tools requires that offshore operators submit requests to MMS for approval."

MMS reports from yesterday estimated that approximately 59% of the oil production in the Gulf is shut-in and that approximately 56% of the natural gas production in the Gulf is shut-in.

The MMS used reports from operators to estimate that personnel are still evacuated from a total of 145 production platforms, equivalent to 20.1 % of the 694 manned platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

If you are keeping count. That is two major energy infrastructure components that Hurricane Ike targeted severely: the electric grid and the offshore oil structures.

Strange fact of the day:

As I was driving home from Beaumont, I locked in on a Public Radio program in Louisiana that had various utility officials and emergency officials talking about what we learned from the storms. The Entergy spokesperson discussed how the electric utility plans for storms by doing mock storm drills before the start of the hurricane season.

The company which serves, among other areas, the New Orleans region and part of the Houston region, did its normal drill before the start of the 2005 season that saw Hurricane Katrina devastate the New Orleans region.

It was kind of freaky to hear that that drill, done several months before Katrina, was a scenario of a mock major hurricane hitting New Orleans.

Talk about prescience.

But it got a little more weird.

I guess based on the fact that in 2005 Hurricane Katrina was followed a month later by Hurricane Rita hitting Texas, the company this year did a mock drill of a a major hurricane followed a week later by another.

Of course that is just what happened. Hurricane Gustav sacked South Louisiana, the New Orleans region and ripped through the heart of the Louisiana as it dragged its way north. Twelve days later Hurricane Ike slammed into Houston.

A couple of observations.

1. Maybe the TV channels needs to hire Entergy to do long range forecasting.

2. We seem to be getting it right. We have a lot better understanding of hurricanes -- where they will go and the type of damage they will inflict.

Now we need to have a national dialogue on how, with better pre-hurricane planning and preparation ( including better building practices) we can spend the majority of our efforts on gettting out of the way of the storm and less on months and years of rebuilding.

How do we armor our infrastructure and our cities from these beasts?

-- steve buser

Photo copyright 2008 TPWD

Keeping up to date on Ike --

• Platt's Hurricane Fact Sheet


• MMS: '23 Platforms Destroyed By Ike, 66.8% Oil Production Still Shut-In' (RigZone)


• White: Texas needs up to $40 billion in Ike aid, and soon (Houston Chronicle)


• Riders On the Storm (Newsweek)


• Hurricane Ike and the Electronic Divide (PC Week)

--steve buser

Can it get any worse that this?

I think there are a three kinds of people in this world.

1. Those that think that God has gone fishing and, by default, has left us to our own machinations to screw things up.

2. Those who think otherwise and that God's hand is in all of this, but stand firmly against you saying that means God caused things like two hurricanes in two weeks hitting the two most vital energy spots in the U.S.

I'll leave you to figure all of that out.

But, consider this. The blog Common Tragedies picks it as quote of the day on Sept 5 (well before Ike hit the scene). The actor is the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve which takes in oil, and deposits it in caverns in the ground that are located from near New Orleans all the way over to Houston. (well out of any hurricane alley ;-)) -- Here's the quote:

If we are going to have an emergency stockpile, it really ought to be able to function during an emergency.

"That is Mike Giberson, lamenting the fact that we cannot release oil from the SPR because the same storm that disrupted oil supply also knocked out the power needed to pump the oil."

Do you get the sense that God is throwing banana peels on our jog to be the biggest and the best? Or, do you think we are throwing them ourselves?

I mean, come on. How can one expect that two hurricanes just days apart would slice through two of our most important energy supply chains? Never happened before did it. Did it?

Oh, that? Well yes, Katrina and Rita kind of did that same thing back in 2005 but by golly that was a once in a century event.....

I hate to even add insult to injuring by rubbing in a little salt here. But within in a span of less that a month, two hurricanes crippling our energy supply then this incredible melt down on the credit markets and a proposed $700 million bailout by a Republican president? What's the odds of that all happening?

I suppose that's the absolute worse that can happen in the way of cataclysmic events coming together at one time, right? It can't get any worse that this, can it? Can it?

I believe it can. I would like to lumber through some thoughts on that in the next few days.

Hope you will join me. I invite you comments.

Oh, yes.

3. Those that believe that God has a plan and it includes us being smart enough to solve by ourselves some of the screwballs this world is throwing at us.

Next time, bring a cup of coffee. We have some talking to do.

--steve buser

Some reading:

Shell hopes to reroute Auger pipeline in US Gulf
...Nearly 80 percent of the Gulf of Mexico's 1.3 million bpd of crude and 65 percent of its 7.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas remains shut in the wake of Hurricane Ike.

Williams Provides Update on Gulf Coast Operations Following Hurricanes
...The Cameron Meadows natural gas processing plant, located near the communities of Cameron and Johnson Bayou, La., sustained significant damage from Hurricane Ike and is currently shut down. The facility will require repairs, but the extent and timing are still being assessed.

New York crude oil soars record 16.37 dollars
...This month, every OSV that can work is working. Vessel owners surveyed this month said 207 vessels are working, and fleet utilization is effectively 100 percent. Operators need more vessels, but can't find them. One owner told EnergyCurrent, "We could use 10 more boats."

Damage from Ike could affect coastal ecosystem of Texas for years
...I'm sure what we'll see (from Ike) is more evidence of what happens when we don't maintain those natural barriers," said Larry McKinney, executive director of the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico studies at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi.

When the oil stops flowing

...Exactly how could America be subjected to a protracted oil interruption, that is, a 10% shortfall lasting longer than several weeks? It will not come from hurricane action in the Gulf of Mexico, or even major refinery accidents or other oil infrastructure damage.

Ike's littered past still haunts

Some new photos of the devastation of Hurricane Ike. Top is a Coast Guard Photo --notice the helicopter flying over the flooded area on Galveston

This next photo (above) is a sand left over from Ike, hiding a road on the Bolivar peninsula.
The line of trucks heading through the flood waters is from Entergy (the electric company) site. Thas a heroic rescue of millions of dollars in trucks and equipment as the flood waters started to inundate the lower areas of Louisiana' coast. The trucks were working on repairs from Hurricane Gustav, when Hurricane Ike's winds and waves were about to catch them.

Another FEMA photo of the seawall and the debris washed up on what little is left of the beach in Galveston.
Another photo from Entergy's site showing the time of power line damage the company had to deal with from damages by two strong hurricanes in two weeks . (We won't even mention Tropical Storm Faye. ) The damages were all across Entergy's Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas service areas. Check this site which shows the places were power is still not available (though the numbers are dwindling).

Below is screen shot of the Entergy Outage screen from Beaumont, Texas. Each shape is clickable and gives a report on the outage as well as how many customers are affected. This is best and most useful online map mashup I have ever scene. Customer service has taken a giant leap.


--steve buser

Hurricane Ike -- after the storm

Seems some areas fare a comparative "well" from Ike's fury. This is an aerial photo of the Golden Pass LNG project under construction in Sabine Pass, TX. There seems little out of place in the photo and no obvious damages such as missing roof on the large tanks or levees washed out.

The photo is from a series of satellite shots indexed by NOAA-- you click on the area you want to see and when the image comes up, click it to see a zoomed in view. These are very large files -- this file is just a piece of one and I reduced it to 33% of its size to keep the file size here manageable (click on the photo for a close up view).

Below is a shot of the Port of Port Arthur -- notice no trains, no trucks -- the mandatory evacuation order was in place when these pictures were shot. Also, notice the roof damage on the warehouse on the left.



Some followup on Hurricane Ike's after math.

Google Maps file that shows aftermath all along the Texas -- Louisiana coast (view in Google maps or download to view in Google earth)

New York Times, video of first rescuers view of Bolivar Peninsula near Houston

AP followup video of Houston after Ike (YouTube.com)

Dallas TV Station photos of Ike devastation

USGS compares before and after shots of Bolivar, Sabine Pass, Galveston and more.

-steve buser

Going into the eye of Ike

This is what it looks like when a weather buoy goes into the eye -- winds go up, air temperature and pressure drop dramatically. Unfortunately, that may have been the end of this buoy -- it had not reported for more than 2 hours after these readings.

This buoy is (maybe was) about 123 miles southeast of Galveston, about 13 miles from the 4 p.m. position of the Gulf-eating Hurricane.

-steve buser

Hurricane Ike blowing ashore near Galveston in Texas

The chart above shows the windspeed at the National Buoy Data Center's buoy on the Jetty at Galveston Bay. Galveston is the island that seaward of Houston.. The winds were just shy of 40 knots just after 4 p.m.

The picture below is a satellite view of Hurricane Ike about the same time. The storm is different from other storms in that the eye is not clearly visible and is not tightly compact.
Scientist will have a long time to study that and find out why. One immediate impact if it holds up like that when Ike's eye hits land -- at 12 mph, some people will be in the eye 4 or 5 hours.

Below the satellite photo is a graph showing how fast the barometric pressure is falling as Ike approaches


--steve buser