Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike pounces into Gulf of Mexico

Ike is a Gulf Coast hurricane. It is official. Wish it weren't but it is.

That sends shivers up the spines of people along the Gulf Coast. Especially along the middle Texas coast which is now the center of the cone of uncertainty. Maybe they should be rejoicing, though. As local forecaster Bob Breck noted tonight, with the way these forecast go, this far out, being the target is a safe place. The original target was up the East Coast of Florida,
  • then the west coast of Florida,
  • then the panhandle,
  • then New Orleans,
  • then the Upper Texas Coast,
  • then the Mexican border area,
  • then they moved it back up to middle coast of Texas.
He was just joking, of course, but, it does strike a chord. If you want to see what I am talking about, check out this animation of the predicted track for Tropical Storm Fay and watch how it changes over time.

Whoops. I almost forgot, you want to know about the numbers for the storm. Here's from the 9 p.m CDT National Hurricane Center advisory.

---------------------------
"THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
..AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."
-------------------------

Winds are still 80 mph, but a clear eye wall is appearing and forecaster expect it to develop into a category 2 or 3 storm quickly.

(Notice that the speed has dropped to around 9 mph. That could play a role in where landfall happens. The longer it takes to hit land, the longer the atmosphere has to mess up the NHC predictions.)

--steve buser

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