Can it get any worse that this?

I think there are a three kinds of people in this world.

1. Those that think that God has gone fishing and, by default, has left us to our own machinations to screw things up.

2. Those who think otherwise and that God's hand is in all of this, but stand firmly against you saying that means God caused things like two hurricanes in two weeks hitting the two most vital energy spots in the U.S.

I'll leave you to figure all of that out.

But, consider this. The blog Common Tragedies picks it as quote of the day on Sept 5 (well before Ike hit the scene). The actor is the National Strategic Petroleum Reserve which takes in oil, and deposits it in caverns in the ground that are located from near New Orleans all the way over to Houston. (well out of any hurricane alley ;-)) -- Here's the quote:

If we are going to have an emergency stockpile, it really ought to be able to function during an emergency.

"That is Mike Giberson, lamenting the fact that we cannot release oil from the SPR because the same storm that disrupted oil supply also knocked out the power needed to pump the oil."

Do you get the sense that God is throwing banana peels on our jog to be the biggest and the best? Or, do you think we are throwing them ourselves?

I mean, come on. How can one expect that two hurricanes just days apart would slice through two of our most important energy supply chains? Never happened before did it. Did it?

Oh, that? Well yes, Katrina and Rita kind of did that same thing back in 2005 but by golly that was a once in a century event.....

I hate to even add insult to injuring by rubbing in a little salt here. But within in a span of less that a month, two hurricanes crippling our energy supply then this incredible melt down on the credit markets and a proposed $700 million bailout by a Republican president? What's the odds of that all happening?

I suppose that's the absolute worse that can happen in the way of cataclysmic events coming together at one time, right? It can't get any worse that this, can it? Can it?

I believe it can. I would like to lumber through some thoughts on that in the next few days.

Hope you will join me. I invite you comments.

Oh, yes.

3. Those that believe that God has a plan and it includes us being smart enough to solve by ourselves some of the screwballs this world is throwing at us.

Next time, bring a cup of coffee. We have some talking to do.

--steve buser

Some reading:

Shell hopes to reroute Auger pipeline in US Gulf
...Nearly 80 percent of the Gulf of Mexico's 1.3 million bpd of crude and 65 percent of its 7.4 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas remains shut in the wake of Hurricane Ike.

Williams Provides Update on Gulf Coast Operations Following Hurricanes
...The Cameron Meadows natural gas processing plant, located near the communities of Cameron and Johnson Bayou, La., sustained significant damage from Hurricane Ike and is currently shut down. The facility will require repairs, but the extent and timing are still being assessed.

New York crude oil soars record 16.37 dollars
...This month, every OSV that can work is working. Vessel owners surveyed this month said 207 vessels are working, and fleet utilization is effectively 100 percent. Operators need more vessels, but can't find them. One owner told EnergyCurrent, "We could use 10 more boats."

Damage from Ike could affect coastal ecosystem of Texas for years
...I'm sure what we'll see (from Ike) is more evidence of what happens when we don't maintain those natural barriers," said Larry McKinney, executive director of the Harte Research Institute for Gulf of Mexico studies at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi.

When the oil stops flowing

...Exactly how could America be subjected to a protracted oil interruption, that is, a 10% shortfall lasting longer than several weeks? It will not come from hurricane action in the Gulf of Mexico, or even major refinery accidents or other oil infrastructure damage.

Ike keeps the whole Gulf Coast in the game

Image -- how Hurricanes are "won." FEMA Photo by Barry Bahler

The National Weather Service says

"AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...
EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.... "

"DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR"

(Photo Left from NOAA Satellite and Information Service showing how Ike is swallowing the Gulf.)


Commentary
Is Hurricane Ike teasing Louisiana?

I know it sounds preposterous but what else can it be? The National Weather Service has laid out a track for Ike to hit Texas, first at the Mexico line and then later near Corpus, and now a little farther up that coast than that. But Ike just seems determined to make a close pass, like some long ago Moon shot, just south of Louisiana.

And it seems to be taking its time doing it. I mean, 7 miles per hour. That's a turtle race. Big strong storms are suppose to power across the ocean. And northwest? What's that all about. The storm is suppose to go west north west ( the two west do make a left turn) and that will keep it away from Louisiana.

All the science, the years of pondering and filing through rows of numbers and equations and matching them to past storms. Our best scientists and best mathematicians and technicians and physicist and theorist -- all the kings horse and all the kings men can't make Ike do what science says he should do.

Makes us seem kind of small in the scheme of things. Powerless against vast powers of self-inspired nature We are fle as on ancharging elephant-- pulling back to stop him.

But Ike will turn. It will turn because all across the Gulf Coast people are staying up for the 10 0'clock news -- one last hope against hope that our team got it right, called the right play, had the right players in the game, sco uted the opponents the best.

Of course in Texas, they are pulling against the legions of number crunchers and weather watchers. I am sure they have more prayers on their side. The mathaticos and nature wizards have left them to the wind. They have to call on the eternal. It is their only stand. Surely they got the weatherati got it wrong. Surely the trough (whatever that really is) will sweep down, deus ex machina, and whisk this beast back to the east and spare them.

So here we are like two stands of cheering supporters. Louisiana pulling for the scientists behind the grand shimmering curtain ... Texans pulling for a thundering trough that will rumble in like Helios on his golden chariot pulled by teams of mighty galloping steeds.

We cheer. We cajole. We yell encouragement. We even pray. But in the end, all along the Gulf Coast, we are just spectators in the stands, watching a game of strength among the gods: a game that will spill out of the watery playing field and into our bleachers -- this side or that, us or them. Then we will become engulfed in the game, scurrying to keep from getting hurt.

We pray for each other, promise help if our neighbors get trampled. But, our biggest hope is that we get left out of the real blood sport. The mixing of billions of gigawatts of twisting mists and groaning winds with solid but vulnerable structures and plants and pets and human lives. Like some universal scrum --forces pushing against forces so strong that mists become deadly weapons.

The only way the spectators can win is to guess right about whether it will be their bleachers which will become the battlefield and then get out of the way before they do.

That is our game.

Not knowing where the game will spill out of the Gulf and onto land, and having only a few precious hours, we have to get millions of souls out of the way. We have to fortify our homes and latch down movable things. We scurry pets to safety. Gently move our sick and elderly. We overload highways, runways, railways and anthing else that moves. And leave behind ghost towns. The Poseidon may spring up as a watery warrior to usurp Zeus's kingdom. But we leave hims a Pyrrhic victory. Whatever he claims, can be rebuilt.

The hurricane is an event that shows us what we are made of. Each one of us. And all of us. We find that we can work together better than ever before pressed by impossible deadlines. Or we find out that old wounds cannot be bandaged that quickly and we fail in our cause. It is ours to lose.

In the end lives are at stake. Property damage will be counted in billions of dollars. Lives will be counted as tears.

We're in this together.

--steve buser

Brave Helios, wake up your steeds...

Fema Photo by Michael Rieger

Hurricane Ike laying claim on Gulf of Mexico

It is still there!

Hurricane Ike didn't disappear last night.

In fact, it start spinning up the Gulf of Mexico and claiming it as its own.

I start the day out with a new graphic -- looks familiar doesn't it? The difference is there is no track down the center. I'm wondering if this is not a more accurate representation of what we know. Hurricanes rarely follow the line down the middle, but they do often stay within the cone of uncertainty. This gives a better picture to me of who ought to be taking serious preparations at this time.

Just a thought.

Click on the graphic above from the National Hurricane Center to get all the coordinates and such. A couple of things caught my attention:

• the storm turned to a NW heading over night -- which if it holds up will take it more into the center of the Gulf
• the storm has slowed down to 8 mph. Seems to me, the faster it moves, that harder it is for it to take sharp turns.
• Winds are picking up -- 85 mph now.

You want to see how big this thing is getting, view this NOAA hi-res shot.

You can still see the storm pretty good on the Casablanca, Cuba radar, which to me is amazing considering the hit the upper end of Cuba took and continues to take.

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike pounces into Gulf of Mexico

Ike is a Gulf Coast hurricane. It is official. Wish it weren't but it is.

That sends shivers up the spines of people along the Gulf Coast. Especially along the middle Texas coast which is now the center of the cone of uncertainty. Maybe they should be rejoicing, though. As local forecaster Bob Breck noted tonight, with the way these forecast go, this far out, being the target is a safe place. The original target was up the East Coast of Florida,

• then the west coast of Florida,
  
• then the panhandle,
• then New Orleans,
  
• then the Upper Texas Coast,
  
• then the Mexican border area,
• then they moved it back up to middle coast of Texas.
  

He was just joking, of course, but, it does strike a chord. If you want to see what I am talking about, check out this animation of the predicted track for Tropical Storm Fay and watch how it changes over time.

Whoops. I almost forgot, you want to know about the numbers for the storm. Here's from the 9 p.m CDT National Hurricane Center advisory.

---------------------------
"THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
..AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."
-------------------------

Winds are still 80 mph, but a clear eye wall is appearing and forecaster expect it to develop into a category 2 or 3 storm quickly.

(Notice that the speed has dropped to around 9 mph. That could play a role in where landfall happens. The longer it takes to hit land, the longer the atmosphere has to mess up the NHC predictions.)

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike makes landfall in Cuba

The latest prediction by NOAA and the National Weather Service puts Hurricane Ike in the center of the Gulf this Thursday night with a brush past New Orleans and a bead on the upper Texas Coast. The cone of error however is still quite large extending from Pensacola to the Brownsville, TX.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Ike made is second landfall, this time in Cuba near the town of Puerto Padre. (Weather Underground's page for Puerto Padre)

Camagüey, the third largest city of Cuba with a population of 324,921 seems to be the next largest city in the path of Hurricane Ike.

The photo of Camagüey on the left (photo by Danelo) shows Iglesia San Francisco (right) and Estadio Cándido González (background, center)

Camagüey Radar

Pico de San Juan Radar

--steve buser


Salient parts of the 2:oo a.m EDT ( 1:oo a.m. here) :

TNT34 KNHC 080555
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
200 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...

....

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO WESTWARD THROUGH MATANZAS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR JUST INLAND NEAR THE THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS.  THIS POSITION IS 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
...

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Models predict more westerly path for Hurricane Ike

The predicted path for Hurricane Ike by the Naval Maritime Forecast Center

The new hurricane model runs by Weather Underground, are hinting at a westerly turn to Ike when it gets to the middle of the Gulf. Still, those predictions are 5 days out and subject to considerable error that far out.

Any suggestion of a westerly turn is good news for the New Orleans region which is still trying to bring its citizens back from Hurricane Gustav.