Showing posts with label hurricane. Show all posts
Showing posts with label hurricane. Show all posts

Monday, September 22, 2008

Ike's littered past still haunts

Some new photos of the devastation of Hurricane Ike. Top is a Coast Guard Photo --notice the helicopter flying over the flooded area on Galveston

This next photo (above) is a sand left over from Ike, hiding a road on the Bolivar peninsula.
The line of trucks heading through the flood waters is from Entergy (the electric company) site. Thas a heroic rescue of millions of dollars in trucks and equipment as the flood waters started to inundate the lower areas of Louisiana' coast. The trucks were working on repairs from Hurricane Gustav, when Hurricane Ike's winds and waves were about to catch them.

Another FEMA photo of the seawall and the debris washed up on what little is left of the beach in Galveston.
Another photo from Entergy's site showing the time of power line damage the company had to deal with from damages by two strong hurricanes in two weeks . (We won't even mention Tropical Storm Faye. ) The damages were all across Entergy's Louisiana, Texas, and Arkansas service areas. Check this site which shows the places were power is still not available (though the numbers are dwindling).

Below is screen shot of the Entergy Outage screen from Beaumont, Texas. Each shape is clickable and gives a report on the outage as well as how many customers are affected. This is best and most useful online map mashup I have ever scene. Customer service has taken a giant leap.


--steve buser

Friday, September 12, 2008

Ike lets his presence be known

The low clouds that capture the reflection of the city lightswere whisking past yesterday at sundown, helping the moon to play peekaboo.

Hurricane Ike was sending out its tentacles as in thrashed around in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico passing us by.

That's not to say he didn't leave scars here. There were evacuations and flooding in the areas down close to the Gulf of Mexico. There were starting to be power outages in the New Orleans area -- people who had just returned and had their power restored, were now in the dark again.
In the cities of our region closesto the Gulf that suffered the most from Hurricane they were expected hurricane force winds or near hurricane force winds from Ike's brush by.

I took this picture out on the levee near where the 23 mile Causeway bridge comes ashore in Metairie from its span of Lake Pontchartrain. You can see these building rise up in the sky as you are coming across the Causeway from the north shore.

--steve buser

Wednesday, September 10, 2008

Ike keeps the whole Gulf Coast in the game


Image -- how Hurricanes are "won." FEMA Photo by Barry Bahler

The National Weather Service says
"AT 700 PM CDT...0000Z...
THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 700 MILES...1125 KM...
EAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
AND ABOUT 345 MILES...555 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR.... "
"DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR"

(Photo Left from NOAA Satellite and Information Service showing how Ike is swallowing the Gulf.)


Commentary
Is Hurricane Ike teasing Louisiana?

I know it sounds preposterous but what else can it be? The National Weather Service has laid out a track for Ike to hit Texas, first at the Mexico line and then later near Corpus, and now a little farther up that coast than that. But Ike just seems determined to make a close pass, like some long ago Moon shot, just south of Louisiana.

And it seems to be taking its time doing it. I mean, 7 miles per hour. That's a turtle race. Big strong storms are suppose to power across the ocean. And northwest? What's that all about. The storm is suppose to go west north west ( the two west do make a left turn) and that will keep it away from Louisiana.

All the science, the years of pondering and filing through rows of numbers and equations and matching them to past storms. Our best scientists and best mathematicians and technicians and physicist and theorist -- all the kings horse and all the kings men can't make Ike do what science says he should do.

Makes us seem kind of small in the scheme of things. Powerless against vast powers of self-inspired nature We are fle as on ancharging elephant-- pulling back to stop him.

But Ike will turn. It will turn because all across the Gulf Coast people are staying up for the 10 0'clock news -- one last hope against hope that our team got it right, called the right play, had the right players in the game, sco uted the opponents the best.

Of course in Texas, they are pulling against the legions of number crunchers and weather watchers. I am sure they have more prayers on their side. The mathaticos and nature wizards have left them to the wind. They have to call on the eternal. It is their only stand. Surely they got the weatherati got it wrong. Surely the trough (whatever that really is) will sweep down, deus ex machina, and whisk this beast back to the east and spare them.

So here we are like two stands of cheering supporters. Louisiana pulling for the scientists behind the grand shimmering curtain ... Texans pulling for a thundering trough that will rumble in like Helios on his golden chariot pulled by teams of mighty galloping steeds.

We cheer. We cajole. We yell encouragement. We even pray. But in the end, all along the Gulf Coast, we are just spectators in the stands, watching a game of strength among the gods: a game that will spill out of the watery playing field and into our bleachers -- this side or that, us or them. Then we will become engulfed in the game, scurrying to keep from getting hurt.

We pray for each other, promise help if our neighbors get trampled. But, our biggest hope is that we get left out of the real blood sport. The mixing of billions of gigawatts of twisting mists and groaning winds with solid but vulnerable structures and plants and pets and human lives. Like some universal scrum --forces pushing against forces so strong that mists become deadly weapons.

The only way the spectators can win is to guess right about whether it will be their bleachers which will become the battlefield and then get out of the way before they do.

That is our game.

Not knowing where the game will spill out of the Gulf and onto land, and having only a few precious hours, we have to get millions of souls out of the way. We have to fortify our homes and latch down movable things. We scurry pets to safety. Gently move our sick and elderly. We overload highways, runways, railways and anthing else that moves. And leave behind ghost towns. The Poseidon may spring up as a watery warrior to usurp Zeus's kingdom. But we leave hims a Pyrrhic victory. Whatever he claims, can be rebuilt.

The hurricane is an event that shows us what we are made of. Each one of us. And all of us. We find that we can work together better than ever before pressed by impossible deadlines. Or we find out that old wounds cannot be bandaged that quickly and we fail in our cause. It is ours to lose.

In the end lives are at stake. Property damage will be counted in billions of dollars. Lives will be counted as tears.

We're in this together.

--steve buser

Brave Helios, wake up your steeds...
Fema Photo by Michael Rieger

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Hurricane Ike pounces into Gulf of Mexico

Ike is a Gulf Coast hurricane. It is official. Wish it weren't but it is.

That sends shivers up the spines of people along the Gulf Coast. Especially along the middle Texas coast which is now the center of the cone of uncertainty. Maybe they should be rejoicing, though. As local forecaster Bob Breck noted tonight, with the way these forecast go, this far out, being the target is a safe place. The original target was up the East Coast of Florida,
  • then the west coast of Florida,
  • then the panhandle,
  • then New Orleans,
  • then the Upper Texas Coast,
  • then the Mexican border area,
  • then they moved it back up to middle coast of Texas.
He was just joking, of course, but, it does strike a chord. If you want to see what I am talking about, check out this animation of the predicted track for Tropical Storm Fay and watch how it changes over time.

Whoops. I almost forgot, you want to know about the numbers for the storm. Here's from the 9 p.m CDT National Hurricane Center advisory.

---------------------------
"THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE
WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST
OR ABOUT 120 MILES...
195 KM...WEST OF HAVANA CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
..AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO."
-------------------------

Winds are still 80 mph, but a clear eye wall is appearing and forecaster expect it to develop into a category 2 or 3 storm quickly.

(Notice that the speed has dropped to around 9 mph. That could play a role in where landfall happens. The longer it takes to hit land, the longer the atmosphere has to mess up the NHC predictions.)

--steve buser

Texas media starting to ramp up Hurricane Ike news

This buoy off Sand Key, FL is reporting winds of 54kts out of the east south east, showing the Florida keys will be getting some strong effects for Hurricane Ike as it passes by the dangling state. The best real time site to watch Hurricane Ike, right now, is the radar at Casablanca, Cuba.

Meanwhile, the weather news is picking up in the Houston area after yesterdays the oil companies sprang to action:

Oil, gas companies do it all over again

here's the Houston Chronicle's Hurricane Central

Corpus Christi's Caller Times is paying close attention to Hurricane Ike

The Brownsville Herald is also keeping track of where the storm will be targeting in the lower Texas coast

Even the Beaumont Enterprise on the the upper Texas coast reports events beginning to be cancelled in anticipation of the weather events to come.

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike seems to like lower Texas coast

The New Orleans Region is out!

The new model runs set the sites of Hurricane Ike on the lower Texas coast and Louisiana's coast line including the New Orleans region is no longer in the cone of uncertainty.

The storm is having a tough time with the Cuban coastline as it pushes its way through the Golfo de Matamano.

It is aiming over the Sierra de la Guira -- a favorite bird watching area and preserve with pine, cedar and mahogany forests. It will apparently pass almost directly over San Diego de la Banos.

You can watch its progress on this radar on the Isle of Pines, just across the bay from the center of the storm. Or from Casblanca, Cuba radar which shows the lower Florida coast which is getting bands from the storm as it passes by.

Of course, the National Weather Service radar in Miami gives the same view from the U.S. side.

--steve buser

Monday, September 8, 2008

Hurricane Ike losing strength strafing Cuba shores


Old Hurricane Ike is still sliding along the Cuban coast and losing strength doing it.

At 10 p.m. our time the center of Hurricane Ike was located near latitude 21.8N longitude 80.8W -- in the Gulfo de Cazones, 2o miles south of Playa Giron and Bahía del Cochinos (Bay of Pigs) on the south coast of Cuba 140 miles southeast of Havana. Sustained winds are at a 80 mph maximum and forward speed slipped slightly to 13 mph.

The storm was ravelled by its pass over Cuba even though it escaped the highest mountains. Central pressure has risen to 967 milibars and hurricane force winds now only extend 35 miles from the center.

For your historical interest, the Bay of Pigs was the site of a 1961 U.S.-backed invasion by 1200 Cuban exiles and supporters that failed to overthrow President Fidel Castro's government. The survivors were later traded to the US for $53 million in medicine and money.

On its way toward this spot Ike's center passed just to the south of the city of Cienfuegos --one of Cuba's chief seaports (center of sugar trade, coffee and and tobacco) the farming region around Cienfuegos (literally 100 fires) is a chief sugar cane and coffee growing region. ( I can see a story coming about this effect on the world market because of the effect of Gustav on US sugar cane crops).

The picture above is the the state hotel in Cienfuegos. (Photo by Dirk van der Made)

Below, the picture is of a beach on the island of Cargo Largo del Sur -- on the south edge of the Gulfo de Cazones where Hurricane Ike is now passing.

--steve buser

Quick Hurricane Ike update.

Key West Radar is starting to pick up the outer bands of Hurricane Ike.


Here is the latest wave height predictions that show the path of Hurricane Ike through the Gulf of Mexico.

--steve buser

Ike slides along Cuban coast -- Texas is the bullseye


The new Hurricane Ike path from NOAA keeps New Orleans just on the edge of the cone of error. The Central Texas Coast is in the center. This puts a real burden on the Houston and Corpus Christi areas to keep and eye on the storm but pushes back likely landfall to Saturday.

Cuba is also taking its toll on the storm with the maximum sustained winds down to 85 mph.

Weather in the Keys
The winds are starting to pick up in the Florida Keys with the Sombrero Key buoy reporting 28kt sustained winds and long key reporting 22kt winds. Sand Key, the furthest buoy on the strand out from the mainland is reporting 31kts winds.

Real Time Buoy data
Here's some real time buoy data from the west side of the storm.

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike slides back into hot water

Hurricane Ike has been holding steady at about the 2.1 latitude mark for the past 24 hours. For that matter it is has basically been on that track for several days. That is a direct west heading.

The forecast calls for a turn slightly to the north to follow Cuba. It is not out of the realm now that it will go along Cuba's south shore over the water. It went in a straight diagonal path west across Cuba, hitting the third largest city Camaguey, a large dairy center , where the radar is now out of service.

It has emerged into a shallow coastal bay that is protected by barrier islands. The latest National Hurricane Center Advisory still has it as a category 2 storm with 100 miles per hour winds and heading due west at 14 mph. It expects it to slide up the Cuba, now though, much of that sliding may be over open water (of sorts).

Though, Camaguey radar is out, you can still track the storm with the Pico de San Juan radar from Cuba.

You can now watch the storm approaching (in about 36 hours) from a Key West, Florida beach cam. And this cam at Mallory Square

Governor Bobby Jindal declares emergency for Louisiana as Ike approaches


Here's NOAA's latest high resolution picture of Ike just crossing Cuba


Hurricane Ike gathering headlines on trek toward Gulf of Mexico

Fema evacuees return to New Orleans from their shelters for Hurricane Gustav, only to greet the possibility of Hurricane Ike emerging into the Gulf (FEMA photo by Barry Bahler)


Some miscellaneous news of interest to Hurricane Ike watchers.


President declares emergency for Florida in advance of Ike

Corps starts Blue Roof Program in Louisiana for Hurricane Gustav damaged homes

Disaster Recovery Center Opens in Houma to Assist Residents

Ike Slams Cuba, Keys Could Be Next (Channel 13 Central Florida)

Hurricane Ike
slams Cuba, Haiti death toll passes 600
(AFP)

Entergy restores 80 percent from Gustav; awaits Ike
(Beaumont, TX Enterprise)

Hurricane Ike sweeps across lower Cuba

Hurricane Ike appears ready to emerge back over water after cutting across the middle third of Cuba during the night.

Wide satellite imagery shows outflow bands from Hurricane Ike beginning to sweep across southern Florida.

The 7 am CDT advisory from the National Hurricane center puts the center of Hurricane Ike at Latitude 21.1 North and Longitude 77.9 West -- 20 miles directly south of Camaquey, Cuba's third largest city. It is moving west near 14 mph and a west to west-northwest motion is expected over the next day or two. "

"On this track the center of Ike will move over or very near central Cuba today ... and
emerge into the Southeastern Gulf of Mexico by late Tuesday."

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH...155
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IKE MOVES
OVER CENTRAL CUBA TODAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200
MILES...325 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

Hurricane Ike makes landfall in Cuba

The latest prediction by NOAA and the National Weather Service puts Hurricane Ike in the center of the Gulf this Thursday night with a brush past New Orleans and a bead on the upper Texas Coast. The cone of error however is still quite large extending from Pensacola to the Brownsville, TX.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Ike made is second landfall, this time in Cuba near the town of Puerto Padre. (Weather Underground's page for Puerto Padre)

Camagüey, the third largest city of Cuba with a population of 324,921 seems to be the next largest city in the path of Hurricane Ike.

The photo of Camagüey on the left (photo by Danelo) shows Iglesia San Francisco (right) and Estadio Cándido González (background, center)

Camagüey Radar

Pico de San Juan Radar

--steve buser


Salient parts of the 2:oo a.m EDT ( 1:oo a.m. here) :
TNT34 KNHC 080555
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 28A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 AM EDT MON SEP 08 2008

...IKE JUST INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA...

....

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBA FROM THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO WESTWARD THROUGH MATANZAS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWEST BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.6 WEST OR JUST INLAND NEAR THE THE NORTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA IN THE PROVINCE OF LAS TUNAS. THIS POSITION IS 85 MILES...135 KM...EAST OF CAMAGUEY.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR...AND A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF IKE WILL MOVE OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL CUBA TODAY...AND BE NEAR OR OVER WESTERN CUBA ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 120 MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS IKE MOVES OVER CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 945 MB...27.91 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 9 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS... ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

IKE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS. PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA COULD RECEIVE ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
...

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

Sunday, September 7, 2008

Hurricane Ike jogs to west?

The latest Satellite loop for Hurricane Ike shows it changing directions to the west and apparently staying off the coast of Cuba for a while. That could be a spoiler for the theory that travelling over the length of Cuba will weaken Ike.


The latest advisory on the storm from the National Hurricane Center:
WTNT34 KNHC 071801
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 26A...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 07 2008

...CORRECTED FOR TIME...

...EYE OF IKE JUST WEST OF GREAT INAGUA ISLAND...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF VILLA
CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA...CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE
AVILA....VILLA CLARA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...AND CIENFUEGOS. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...LA HABANA...AND CIUDAD DE HABANA. A HURRICANE WATCH
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF
SOUTHWARD...INCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
BAHAMAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...AND SOUTH
FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.0 WEST OR JUST WEST OF GREAT
INAGUA ISLAND AND ABOUT 90 MILES...155 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF
GUANTANAMO CUBA.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH...21 KM/HR. A WEST TO
WEST-SOUTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THIS
TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEAR OR OVER EASTERN
CUBA TONIGHT...AND NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL CUBA LATE MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BUT IKE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA. IKE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145
MILES...230 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 949 MB...28.02 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA...AND EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA
COULD SEE 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...20.9 N...74.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN

Recovering from one storm with and Eye on Hurricane Ike

You expect trees to fall across power lines during a storm, leaving customers without power. But when the big towers end up looking like pixie sticks, you know you have some work to do to get power back on This pictures from Entergy.com, Entergy's web site, show some of what they had to do with up and down the state of Louisiana. This tangle is from Plaquemine, but similar pictures are posted from St. Gabriel and elsewhere.

Can the system be hardened enough for another hurricane barrelling into the Gulf this week?

Here's a excerpt from an Entergy PowerPoint that shows how fast power was brought back up in the New Orleans region. I left out the other regions of the state to make the file smaller. Also, I converted it to PDF, so most people can see it.


Keep Track of Ike's Passage through the Florida Straits:
Here's an interesting site to keep track of the readings from the buoys and weather stations in the Florida Keys.

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike local news sources

New Orleans weather resources to follow Hurricane Ike progress:

TV
Radio
Newspaper/Interet

Models predict more westerly path for Hurricane Ike

The predicted path for Hurricane Ike by the Naval Maritime Forecast Center

The new hurricane model runs by Weather Underground, are hinting at a westerly turn to Ike when it gets to the middle of the Gulf. Still, those predictions are 5 days out and subject to considerable error that far out.

Any suggestion of a westerly turn is good news for the New Orleans region which is still trying to bring its citizens back from Hurricane Gustav.

Hurricane Ike -- new memes in living with storms

After lashing the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hurricane Ike bears down on Great Inagua Island. Early reports estimated 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk Island were damaged or destroyed.

In New Orleans, the hint in hurricane models that a turn to the west may come in the middle of the hurricane's Gulf entry this week, gave a hope to residents.

Meanwhile new memes popped up in the talk of the storm --

  • Faced with the possibility of a second evacuation in two weeks,some floated the idea that internal evacuations maybe should be considered -- it's been talked about before, but it has so many tenacles it just never seems to get anywhere. The idea is to move some people from the low lying areas like New Orleans East to higher areas in the city and shelter them there. Fifty one percent of the city is actually above sea level, according to a recent report.
  • Turnaround evacuations. How do you bring your family back to a home without power and rough it out., then just after the power is restored, pack up and evacuate again?
  • The two 'cane evacuation. If you haven't returned yet, why not consider staying away until Ike is out of the way?
  • Living with 'canes -- the idea introduced by Governor Bobby Jindal, frustrated with the slow progress of getting power back on. If we live in an area where hurricanes will reoccur we have to learn how to build infrastructure that can survive better and/or be restored quicker. What improvements do we need to make? Where has that idea been hiding for 70 years.
I am sure that the language of hurricanes will advance very quickly this hurricane season.

Stay tuned.

--steve buser

Saturday, September 6, 2008

Hurricane Ike stares down Turks and Caicos islands

A NOAA satellite image of Ike from about 10 pm. The system is bearing down on the Turks and aicos Island. The Associated Press reported "Ike's eye was about 60 miles... east of Grand Turk Island Saturday evening. It was moving west-southwest about 12 mph... The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm's maximum sustained winds were 135 mph..."

Here is the latest advisory.
WTNT34 KNHC 070247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY. IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Ike -- Middle of Gulf on Thursday?



This NOAA graphic shows the prediction that Hurricane Ike will be somewhere in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico mid-afternoon on Thursday.

The graphic was released at 7 p.m. New Orleans time on Saturday, September 6, 2008.


Here is a link to the latest weather observations from buoys and ship near Hurricane Ike.