Hurricane Ike local news sources

New Orleans weather resources to follow Hurricane Ike progress:

TV

• WWL-TV
• WDSU-TV
• Fox8-TV
• WNOL CW38

Radio

• WWL -870 AM

Newspaper/Interet

• NOLA.com
  

Models predict more westerly path for Hurricane Ike

The predicted path for Hurricane Ike by the Naval Maritime Forecast Center

The new hurricane model runs by Weather Underground, are hinting at a westerly turn to Ike when it gets to the middle of the Gulf. Still, those predictions are 5 days out and subject to considerable error that far out.

Any suggestion of a westerly turn is good news for the New Orleans region which is still trying to bring its citizens back from Hurricane Gustav.

Hurricane Ike -- new memes in living with storms

After lashing the Turks and Caicos Islands, Hurricane Ike bears down on Great Inagua Island. Early reports estimated 80 percent of the homes on Grand Turk Island were damaged or destroyed.

In New Orleans, the hint in hurricane models that a turn to the west may come in the middle of the hurricane's Gulf entry this week, gave a hope to residents.

Meanwhile new memes popped up in the talk of the storm --

• Faced with the possibility of a second evacuation in two weeks,some floated the idea that internal evacuations maybe should be considered -- it's been talked about before, but it has so many tenacles it just never seems to get anywhere. The idea is to move some people from the low lying areas like New Orleans East to higher areas in the city and shelter them there. Fifty one percent of the city is actually above sea level, according to a recent report.
• Turnaround evacuations. How do you bring your family back to a home without power and rough it out., then just after the power is restored, pack up and evacuate again?
• The two 'cane evacuation. If you haven't returned yet, why not consider staying away until Ike is out of the way?
• Living with 'canes -- the idea introduced by Governor Bobby Jindal, frustrated with the slow progress of getting power back on. If we live in an area where hurricanes will reoccur we have to learn how to build infrastructure that can survive better and/or be restored quicker. What improvements do we need to make? Where has that idea been hiding for 70 years.

I am sure that the language of hurricanes will advance very quickly this hurricane season.

Stay tuned.

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike stares down Turks and Caicos islands

A NOAA satellite image of Ike from about 10 pm. The system is bearing down on the Turks and aicos Island. The Associated Press reported "Ike's eye was about 60 miles... east of Grand Turk Island Saturday evening. It was moving west-southwest about 12 mph... The U.S. National Hurricane Center said the storm's maximum sustained winds were 135 mph..."

Here is the latest advisory.

WTNT34 KNHC 070247
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IKE ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 PM AST SAT SEP 06 2008

...LARGE EYE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE NEAR OR OVER THE
TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...

AT 11 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO THE PROVINCES OF LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA AND HAS
EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH WESTWARD TO THE PROVINCE OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN LAS TUNAS AND GRANMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...
CROOKED ISLAND...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED
ISLANDS...AND FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE
EXUMAS...LONG  ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE
NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM THE NORTHERN BOARDER WITH THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO GONAIVES.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA AND SANCTI SPIRITUS.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE REMAINDER OF THE BAHAMAS...CUBA...SOUTH
FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.9 WEST...VERY NEAR THE TURKS
AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

IKE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO
THE WEST LATE SUNDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE
WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EARLY SUNDAY.  IKE
SHOULD THEN MOVE NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF
EASTERN CUBA SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE IKE MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 947 MB...27.96 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13 TO 18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED IN THE WARNING AREA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH TO THE OF
THE CENTER OF IKE.

LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IKE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THESE WAVES
COULD GENERATE DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF
12 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA COULD SEE 6 TO 12
INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS
AND MUDSLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...21.2 N...70.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Hurricane Ike -- Middle of Gulf on Thursday?

This NOAA graphic shows the prediction that Hurricane Ike will be somewhere in the middle of the Gulf of Mexico mid-afternoon on Thursday.

The graphic was released at 7 p.m. New Orleans time on Saturday, September 6, 2008.


Here is a link to the latest weather observations from buoys and ship near Hurricane Ike.

Hurricane Ike Tropical Storm Winds forecast

The probabilities forecast for tropical storm force winds from Hurricane Ike striking various US locations within the next 120 hours (5 days) from midday Saturday, Sept 6, 2008. Notice that the probabilities now include the entire Gulf Coast, except for Texas..

Here is the Hurricane Hunters plane schedule for today:

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT SAT 06 SEPTEMBER 2008
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
        VALID O7/1100Z TO 08/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2008
        TCPOD NUMBER.....08-098

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
   1. HURRICANE IKE
      FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
      A. 07/1800,08/0000Z
      B. AFXXX 0909A IKE
      C. 07/1500Z
      D. 21.6N 74.1W
      E. 07/1700Z TO 08/0000Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

      FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA 49
      A. 08/0000Z
      B. NOAA9 1009A IKE
      C. 07/1730Z
      D. NA
      E. NA
      F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

      FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 72
      A. 08/0600,1200Z
      B. AFXXX 1109A IKE
      C. 08/0230Z
      D. 21.8N 76.6W
      E. 08/0500Z TO 08/1200Z
      F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

      FLIGHT FOUR -- NOAA 49
      A. 08/1200Z
      B. NOAA9 1209A IKE
      C. 08/0530Z
      D. NA
      E. NA
      F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

--steve buser

Hurricane Ike is now a Category 4 Hurricane

The National Hurricane Center has just upgraded Ike to a category four:

"MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  IKE IS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS
CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE.  FLUCTUATIONS
IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT IKE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THIS PERIOD."

See this link for the latest advisory

"HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 949 MB...28.23 INCHES."


"AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IKE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.7 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...145 KM"
...EAST OF GRAND TURK ISLAND.